1880Q

Volume, not price

Oil near $100 is the headline. The numbers say prices fall into 2027 while US oil and gas volumes keep climbing. Our free paper shows which companies get paid either way.

By Trent Grinkmeyer, 1880Q Research. September 2026.

Brent price versus US oil and gas volumes, indexed to 2025 Brent rises from 100 in 2025 to 132 in 2026, then falls to 107 in 2027. US crude output rises from 100 to 101 to 104. US LNG exports rise from 100 to 115 to 123. Source: EIA September 2026 outlook. 100 120 2025 2026 2027 Brent price $74 LNG exports US crude
Indexed to 2025 = 100. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026.

Price goes down. Volume goes up.

$91 → $74Brent crude, 2026 average to 2027 average
13.8 → 14.3US crude output, million barrels a day
17.4 → 18.6US LNG exports, billion cubic feet a day

The government’s own energy forecasters expect the war premium to fade as Middle East flows recover. Over the same stretch, American oil output and natural gas exports keep rising, and AI data centers are signing long-term power deals that run on gas.

So the question isn’t where oil goes next. It’s which companies get paid on the barrels and cubic feet that keep moving. We scored 11 of them and ran each through three scenarios, from a full Hormuz closure to a peace deal. Four came through every scenario without a scratch.

What’s in the paper

  • A scorecard of 11 companiesPermian oil, Guyana-linked barrels, Appalachian and Haynesville gas, and the pipelines and LNG terminals in between.
  • A three-scenario stress testEscalation, the government’s base path, and peace. See which names hold up in all three.
  • The Brent question, answeredNo US company “produces” Brent. Here’s where US investors actually get paid global prices.
  • The risks, and a hard deadlineHow this thesis breaks, the tripwires we’re watching, and the date we’ll call it wrong.

Get the paper

Fifteen pages. Free. It downloads the moment you sign up.